Inform Newsletter - May 2008

In This Months Edition

• The Month That Was
• June Sporting Dates
• Sales and Breeding News / Horse Sale Dates
• Grand Pacific Tours - Spring Carnival 2008
• Ratings Definition

May 2008 The Month That Was

The Queensland winter carnival swings into top gear. Horse of the Year honours looks like going down to the wire and Damien Oliver rides back into big race form. Plus, read what's been happening with trainers, jockeys, horses, the international scene and more in May 2008 - the month that was.

Horses

Punters believe Weekend Hussler is over the line in the race for this year's Horse of the Year honours. The three-year-old has been backed from $1.55 to $1.22 to take out this season's title within 24 hours of corporate bookmaker Sportingbet Australia posting its market. Sportingbet Australia chief executive Michael Sullivan said punters had been quick to snap up the odds on offer for the Ross McDonald trained gelding. Weekend Hussler has won six Group One races this season but just one at weight-for-age, the George Ryder Stakes in which he beat Sydney star Racing To Win. As a result of the backing for Weekend Hussler, Apache Cat has now drifted from $2.40 to $3.00 with Sullivan saying that Greg Eurell's star galloper now represented terrific value. "Apache Cat is at fantastic value for a horse that has taken on all comers and beaten them," Sullivan said. "He and Tulloch are the only Australian horses to take five Group One races in a row, so he has to be in Horse of the Year contention right up to his ears."

Apache Cat: five consecutive G1 victories.
Image: AAP Image

Speaking of Apache Cat, he's etched his name into the history books alongside the legendary Tulloch when he claimed his fifth consecutive Group One victory in the Doomben 10,000. Apache Cat matched Tulloch's record set more than 50 years ago when he destroyed his 10,000 rivals with a 4-3/4 length win in the 1350-metre feature. Since the Group and Listed race classification system was introduced in 1978, many champions have won four Group One races in succession including Kingston Town, Northerly, Octagonal and Sunline as well as Weekend Hussler, but none have managed five. The all-time record rests with the mighty Bernborough who won the equivalent of seven Group One races in succession in 1946. Jockey Corey Brown, who was sacked as Lee Freedman's stable rider in the early autumn, rated Apache Cat's win as the best victory of his career. "That was his best win. He was never going to lose," Brown told winning trainer Greg Eurell.

Australia's champion sprinter Takeover Target has added the KrisFlyer Sprint in Singapore to a record that makes him one of the country's greatest ever international performers. Takeover Target ($2.60 favourite) won the $A765,000 race by a half length from another Australian, Magnus, with the Hong Kong runner Sanziro a nose away in third place. For trainer Joe Janiak, the win rated as highly as any of his horse's previous 16 victories, as much because Takeover Target is now in the veteran class. "He's probably won better races, but that was right up there with any of them," Janiak said. "He's not getting any younger, he's nearly nine. But he showed he's still got a few good runs in him." Takeover Target has now won in four countries on three continents and set a track record of 1:08.8sec for the 1200m at Singapore's Kranji racecourse. The gelding will now head for England for his third campaign having won there in 2006 and finishing fourth and second in 2007 in that country's two best sprint races.

Trainer Mike Moroney and jockey Damien Oliver refused to write off a Cox Plate tilt in the spring for Sarrera who went to another level with a powerful victory in the Group One Doomben Cup. Sarrera grabbed a rails hugging run to give Oliver his 80th Group One success. Sarrera, who caused a $51 upset to claim the Group One Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick last start, has overcome adversity to get to a level neither Moroney nor Oliver dreamed of 12 months ago. Until Sarrera's recent Group One victories, the seven-year-old's previous career highlight was his 2007 Warrnambool Cup victory. "Now he's won this he'll get too much weight in the Cup. We'll need to rethink his spring plans now that he's won twice at weight-for-age. The Cox Plate is not out of the question."

Leading trainer David Hayes unveiled his Melbourne Cup plans for Gorky Park following the four-year-old's impressive win in Saturday's Andrew Ramsden Stakes at Flemington. The class runner of the Listed race, Gorky Park finished second to Efficient in the 2006 Victoria Derby at Flemington and third to Blutigeroo in last year's BMW at Rosehill. He had to carry topweight of 58kg in Saturday's 3200 metre race but it made little difference as Craig Williams slipped the $7 chance through an inside run on the home turn and he raced away to score by five lengths. "The Efficient form is pretty good isn't it," Hayes said in reference to Efficient's Melbourne Cup win last year. "When he (Gorky Park) hits a mile-and-a-half (2400m) he goes from a welter horse to a Group horse. We're pretty excited about this horse. We'll set him for the Melbourne Cup." International racing news

Last season's champion Australian three-year-old Haradasun is likely to have his northern hemisphere campaign curtailed after Coolmore Stud revealed this week he would join its southern hemisphere breeding program for the 2008-09 season. Coolmore purchased a 50 per cent share in the champion three-year-old for a reported $A22.5 million following his wins in the George Ryder Stakes and Doncaster, both for trainer Tony Vasil. Haradasun, winner of the Group One George Ryder Stakes and Doncaster Handicap last autumn, was sixth on his debut for champion Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien in last weekend's Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in England. Haradasun will stand at Coolmore Australia for $A55,000.

Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown won the 133rd Preakness Stakes in explosive style to set up a date with destiny at the Belmont Stakes. Trained by Rick Dutrow jnr and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown romped to a 5-1/4-length victory in the $US1 million ($A1.07 million) 1-3/16-mile (1900m) race to remain unbeaten in five career starts. The lightly raced colt emphatically answered any questions about his ability to bounce back so quickly after his Kentucky Derby triumph on May 3 and will head to the Belmont Stakes on June 7 with the chance to become the 12th horse to capture US flat racing's coveted Triple Crown. The last horse to sweep the Triple Crown was Affirmed in 1978. In that 30-year span, 10 horses have won both the Derby and Preakness but were beaten in the demanding 1 1/2-mile.

Renowned sire Sadler's Wells has been retired from stud duties due to declining fertility. The 27-year-old stallion has stood at Coolmore Stud in Ireland since he finished racing in 1985 and has gone on to sire more than 260 stakes winners and over 70 individual Group One winners. A son of the great Northern Dancer out of Fairy Bridge, Sadler's Wells is renowned for producing superior stayers and has also earned a reputation as a great sire of sires with many of his sons going on to successful careers as stallions. Foaled in the United States in 1981, Sadler's Wells was trained by Vincent O'Brien and won six of his 11 starts including the Irish 2,000 Guineas and Eclipse Stakes during his three-year-old season. But it was in the stallion barn where he made his name being crowned champion sire in Britain and Ireland 14 times, including 13 years in succession between 1992-2004. He was also the leading sire in North America in 1995 and leading sire in France in 1993-94 and again five years later. Among his sons to have also forged successful careers at stud are 2001 Epsom Derby winner Galileo, Carnegie who is the sire of multiple Group One winner Tuesday Joy, and Montjeu who won the Irish and French Derbies and 1999 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe during his illustrious racetrack career.

Jockeys

Damien Oliver - Riding in rare big race form.
Image: AAP Image

Former top jockey Kevin Moses celebrated his first Group One victory as a trainer while Damien Oliver now has the full set of major city Cups after No Wine No Song raced away with the time-honoured Sydney Cup at Randwick. Moses, who won the 3200m staying test as a jockey aboard Palace Revolt almost 20 years ago, said riding horses was much easier than training them, although not as satisfying. "As a jockey, it's not half as much work," Moses said. "You get more satisfaction as a trainer because you have them for so long whereas as a jockey you just get on and off them."

Meanwhile top NZ jockey Michael Walker was reported to be in a stable condition and making progress from head injuries suffered in a pig hunting accident. Walker, 24, suffered serious injuries when he fell down a bluff in north Taranaki. Walker, with 173 wins this season, was on track to become the first jockey to ride 200 winners in a season. Queensland jockey Stathi Katsidis has been suspended for nine months and ordered to undergo drug rehabilitation following an inquiry into a positive drug test returned by the rider. It is the third time Katsidis has offended in the past few years.

Brad Rawiller has set a Victorian riding record for the most winners in a season and now has his sights on being the country's leading Group One jockey for 2007-08. Rawiller took his tally to 165.5 and passed Nick Ryan's 2004-05 mark at Wangaratta when Rocamadour, his only mount at the meeting, won on protest. Former premier Melbourne jockey Nick Ryan is committed to making his latest comeback a success after posting his first city win in nine months at Flemington. The Danny O'Brien-trained Romping gave Ryan, 21, the start he had been looking for in his comeback to city racing after increasing weight derailed his career in September last year. Victorian jockey Luke Nolen is scheduled to undergo surgery in a Brisbane hospital on Monday after suffering head and leg injuries in a fall at the Doomben Cup meeting. Nolen received the injuries when he came off the Bart Cummings-trained Antidotes in the BTC Sprint. He was thrown to the ground when Antidotes appeared to stumble inside the final 200 metres. Nolen is expected to remain in the hospital for a week and may be out of the saddle for up to three months.

Trainers

Leading trainer Gai Waterhouse says she is relieved her reputation is still intact despite being hit with a $10,000 fine after one of her horses tested positive to the banned steroid boldenone. The filly Perfectly Poised was found to have boldenone in her system after analysis of a pre-race urine sample taken before her second at Canterbury on April 18 last year. Under the Rules of Racing, a trainer bears ultimate liability if a horse is taken to the races with a prohibited substance in its system even if it can be proved it was administered elsewhere. In the Perfectly Poised case, stewards could not establish where the drug had been administered and could find no evidence it had anything to do with Waterhouse, her staff or vets at the Randwick Equine Centre. "I am pleased to be cleared of giving her a steroid," Waterhouse said. "I feel she received it before she came into my care. I also think the rule of ultimate liability (on the trainer) should be changed." Waterhouse is a runaway leader of the Sydney trainers' premiership and recently celebrated her third Golden Slipper victory with Sebring who has since been purchased for $30 million by Widden Stud. The iconic Bart Cummings, Australia's greatest living trainer, will have a medal named in his honour to be presented to the outstanding jockey and trainer in NSW each season, commencing in 2008-09. Racing NSW on Thursday announced the Bart Cummings Medal would be awarded annually on a points basis, with 3-2-1 points given to those judged to have been the best performers at Sydney metropolitan meetings each week. Racing NSW said the medal was named after 80-year-old Cummings in recognition of his contribution to the racing industry over many years and his unparalleled achievements as a trainer including preparing 249 Group One winners of which 11 were Melbourne Cup victors.

Mark de Montfort has many great memories of his days as a jockey but a Randwick maiden is now right up there with his best after McClintock gave him the first metropolitan success of his fledgling training career. Among de Montfort's Group One victories were the 1987 AJC Australian Derby on Myocard, the 1998 George Ryder on Quick Flick and the biggest of them all, the 1999 Golden Slipper with Catbird. He retired from race riding about a year ago but just as he was getting his first runners ready in the spring, equine influenza stalled his new venture.

Industry News

Horse numbers at Warwick Farm are expected to swell to more than 1,000 when the bulk of Randwick trainers, relocate their teams there next month when that track is shut down for the upcoming World Youth Day festival. The AJC has also built extra stabling at Warwick Farm to accommodate the influx. The last race meeting at Randwick will be held on June 14 before WYD officials move in to ready the track for the week-long festival in July which culminates in a Papal Mass.

Tony Santic has formally opened his multi-million dollar racing and breeding property near Geelong amid speculation that foundation sire Purrealist would cover champion mare Makybe Diva in his first season. Santic has named the property Makybe in honour of his three-time Melbourne Cup winner who is among 80 broodmares and foals on the 1,295-hectare property.

Racing Victoria Ltd (RVL) has made 35 full-time jobs redundant, including the organisation's chief vet, as part of a program targeting $6 million in annual savings and productivity improvements. The reduction of full time staff numbers represents 20 per cent of the total RVL staff including 27 per cent at manager level or above. Amongst six roles made redundant in the Integrity Services Department was that of John McCaffrey who was Director of Veterinary Services. The changes were the result of review of operations undertaken in December last year by the RVL board. The review followed the Industry Review where the board committed to eliminating duplication and implementing operational inefficiencies.

Gaming giant Tabcorp Holdings Ltd has lodged an application with the Northern Territory government for a racing and sports wagering licence in a bid to grab back some of the gambling revenue lost to the territory from Victoria and New South Wales. Tabcorp said corporate bookmakers in the territory had been attracting an increasing number of punters by offering payouts equivalent to dividends available on totalizators in Victoria and NSW, plus a premium. "That is taking revenue away from all totalizators but particularly Tabcorp's businesses in Victoria and NSW," Tabcorp managing director of wagering Robert Nason said. The market for corporate bookmaking in the territory was expanding, with annual turnover growing from $1.7 billion two years ago to $3 billion this year. "We make this move in response to the rapid acceleration in the market size of the Northern Territory," Mr Nason said.

Geelong Thoroughbred Club members and guests enjoyed an entertaining night out recently, when trainer Mark Kavanagh spoke at the club's May dinner. Kavanagh, who had a hot spring carnival last year with Maldivian, Devil Moon and Divine Madonna proved as good an after dinner speaker as he is a racehorse trainer. Geelong Thoroughbred Club holds regular events throughout the season and anyone interested in finding out more should contact the Club's President, Robert Windmill on 03 5221 4027 or visit the website www.gtclub.com.au

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June 2008 Sporting Fixtures

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Sales and Breeding News / Horse sale dates

Inglis Announce Major 2009 Sale Dates

William Inglis & Son have announced the sale dates for their Major 2009 Yearling and Broodmare Sales.

The schedule will take on the familiar pre EI look, but the minor adjustments to the Easter format, which worked so successfully this year, will remain.

The Sale Dates are:

Classic Yearling Sale (3 sessions): February 8, 9 and 10.

Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale (4 sessions): March 1, 2, 3 and 5.

Australian Easter Yearling Sale (4 sessions including Easter Part II): April 5, 6, 7 and 8.

Australian Easter Broodmare Sale (3 sessions): April 14, 15 and 16.

Classic returns to its traditional spot as Inglis' first sale of the year in 2009.

The last time it was in this position, a record number of yearlings sold for $100,000 or more, including a sale high of $340,000.

"This year's Sale went extremely well in the enforced new timeslot, with a pleasing clearance rate of 82%, indicating the buying bench was there, but the precocious forward type of colts that traditionally sell extremely well at Classic were missing," William Inglis Managing Director Mark Webster said.

Australian Weanling and Breeding Stock Sale

Newmarket - Sydney

26th, 27th, and 29th June

Regarded as the Southern Hemisphere's premier breeding stock sale - the National Sale which kicks away in late May and continue through June with an outstanding selection of lots across all sections of the auction.

The action kicks away with the National Weanling Sale and this year's catalogue is the best ever catalogued.

All of the country's leading sires are represented and a highlight with be the Unreserved Dispersal Sale for Swettenham Stud.

Among the star weanlings catalogued include (at least) half relations to Group One winners including Weekend Hussler, Fashions Afield, Nova Star, Reactive, Typhoon Zed, Mission Critical, Diatribe and Apercu.

Other weanlings catalogued include those from star racemares Cannsea, Larrocha, Kapchat, Leica Smile, In Joyment, Legible, Sharp, Nina Haraka, Yvonne and Speedy Kids.

The National Broodmare Sale has also brought together an outstanding collection of race fillies and mares to suit all buyers.

No fewer than 100 stakes performed mares are set for the auction including Divine Madonna, Zagalia, Ateates, She Will Be Loved, Timbourina, Countess Christie, Segments, Sharp, Musidora, Purde, Shalt Not, Superfly, Vignette, Devil Inside, Diamond Cove, Fabiarna, Litter, Class Success and Jade Diva.

Also catalogued are the proven producers of such stakes gallopers as Hasna, Strategic News, Vinaka, Amelia's Dream, Danabaa, Innovation Girl, Rockabubble, Fantasia, Hurried Choice, Gallant Tess, Belcentra, I Have No Fear, Crimson Reign, Black Bean and No Questions.

National Broodmare Sale

Gold Coast - Queensland

2nd - 6th June

National Yearling Sale

Gold Coast - Queensland

10th - 12th June

June Monthly Sale

Magic Millions - Adelaide

22nd June

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Grand Pacific Tours - Spring Carnival 2008

SPRING RACING PACKAGES TO SET YOUR PULSE RACING!

Efficient and jockey Michael Rodd win the
2007 Melbourne Cup.
Image: AAP Image

Following on the success of the past twelve years, Grand Pacific Tours have launched the 2008 Spring Racing Carnival brochure, featuring a range of packages to this thrilling racing carnival.

Grand Pacific Tours offers you the opportunity to indulge yourself in the electrifying atmosphere at Flemington Racecourse and experience a racing calendar that starts with AAMI Victoria Derby, peaks on Emirates Melbourne Cup Day and ends with fashionable Crown Oaks Day.

Grand Pacific Tours is offering a range of packages designed to suit any budget. The most popular 'Freedom Of Choice' packages are 6 Day packages that allow you to select a hotel in a price range that suits. The 8 Day Superior and Deluxe VIP Package are for the more discerning traveller, staying at the Bayview Eden, with stretch limousine transfers each day.

All packages include accommodation, reserved Grandstand seating and luxury transfers from the hotel to Flemington Racecourse on all three race days - Derby, Melbourne Cup and Oaks Day. Also included are tickets to the Melbourne Cup Eve Dinner function staged at Moonee Valley Racecourse, as well as discount vouchers for day tours and attractions around Melbourne.

Included in the Deluxe and Superior VIP Package packages are return stretch limousine transfers each race day including champagne as well as an intimate Melbourne Yarra River Dinner Cruise on the first night to welcome you. Exclusive to travellers on the Deluxe package, enjoy a buffet luncheon (including drink service) at a reserved table at the Skyline Restaurant each race day. Located in a prime position opposite the winning post, the Skyline Restaurant offers sweeping panorama views of the racecourse.

Craig Williams, riding Kibbutz,
and trainer David Hayes
celebrate winning the
Victorian Derby.
Image: AAP Image

Grand Pacific Tours also offers a 2 Day Tatts Cox Plate Package, where you can experience the electric atmosphere and excitement of Moonee Valley Racecourse as it comes alive for this thrilling race. This package includes accommodation, return coach transfer and a reserved table seating in the Equity Bank Celebrity room including a delicious four course luncheon, premium beverages and basic spirits served throughout the day.

As an added incentive, the first 500 travellers to book and pay will go into the draw to win a $1,000 cash prize which will be drawn at the popular Melbourne Cup Eve Dinner, which boats an 'Eighties' theme.

The 'new look' 2008 Spring Racing Carnival brochure aims to provide travellers with an informative, easy to read guide to this exciting horseracing carnival. The brochure clearly highlights all the benefits travellers will experience when travelling on this all inclusive Grand Pacific Tour package.

Whatever your attraction, whether it be the horses, the jockeys and trainers, the fashion, colour and glamour, or just a great day out, the 2008 Spring Racing Carnival will be bigger and better than ever before and you are invited to be a part of all the fun and excitement with Grand Pacific Tours.

For further information or to receive a comprehensive brochure kit please visit www.grandpacifictours.com or call Grand Pacific Tours on 1800 622 768

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Ratings Definition

AAP FF5 Ratings

The AAP FF5 Ratings are derived from the original Don Scott performance ratings which have stood the test of time in Australian racing for decades. The ratings are designed to provide you with an accurate rating of past and future performances.

Past Ratings

Past ratings are comprised of losing margin, jockey's relative skill disadvantage, running disadvantages, relative weight disadvantages and class and weight rating tables. The performance rating is expressed in kilograms - the higher the kilogram rating of a horse, the better it is. The lower the kilogram rating of a horse, the worse it is.

Future ratings

Future ratings are produced from past ratings and also take into consideration: class, age improvement, form, condition (race fitness), consistency, distance, barrier, track, jockey, weight and going. These factors can be an advantage or disadvantage. The ratings can save you hours of form study, by simply focusing on the higher rated horses.

Odds

The point of the ratings is to be able to calculate the odds about the chances of your selections. FF5 does this for you following Scott's methodologies. Scott used to calculate the difference in margins in kilograms between the horses according to his ratings. The margins are then converted into decimal odds which are expressed as a percentage. By converting the percentages into odds, a set of prices is created which more accurately reflects the winning chances of the horses than what is shown by bookmakers or the tote.

But Scott also added a mathematical edge. In the same way a bookmaker frames a market to 120%, Scott framed his market to a punter's book of 80%. In other words, he converted the percentages into the odds of a market where he had a 20% margin. He would back all main chances (usually within 3 kilos of his ratings) at its true odds or better, to take out a set amount.

The key to profitability is in obtaining the overlay; a better price than what you have assessed its chance as. In a race where a horse starts over its odds, overlays are obtained in excess of the 100% margin sought. Scott would never take under the 'true' odds and would not bet on any horses that were 'unders'.

The important thing is that when you bet, your stake always corresponds with the odds wanted. Thus if you price a horse at $2.50 and your objective is to win $100, then your stake is $40. The stake stays the same whether the odds blow out to $3.00, $3.50 or $5.00. It will always be $40. The longer the price, the bigger the overlay. When a horse is below the true odds desired, there is no betting. The horse is ignored.

The following FF5 ratings show the odds framed to an 80% market showing suggested odds of all horses within 3kg of the top rated horse. In this example, The Adrian Knox Stakes, there are only three horses rated as chances.

Therefore, framing your market to 80% to win $100 on this race would look like this:

The actual result and prices were:

This was a good result for FF5 followers as the winner, Raise, started at 6.50, well over the recommended FF5 odds of 2.90. This was a value bet, an overlay, which the ratings try to identify. The other two chances started well below their recommended prices and naturally, were ignored as betting propositions. Punters can use Form Analyser to quickly arrive at their ratings and true odds. They can also set their markets to a punter's book.

Here's just some of the proof from the last month that Fastform Five Ratings are an imperative tool for any punter!

Doomben 10th , 17th and 24th May

Flemington 17th May

Rosehill 17th May

To find out how you can obtain this outstanding information for every race of every meeting, visit AAP Racing at http://www.aapracing.com.au/products/form-analyser or Dynamic Race Odds at http://www.dynamicraceodds.com/

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