Inform Newsletter - October 2007

In This Months Edition

• AAP Racing - Finding all the winners for Spring
• Melbourne Cup Preview
• October Book Review
• Melbourne Cup Quiz

Finding all the winners for Spring

By Scott Gooley, AAP Racing

The Spring Carnival is now in full swing.

Despite the EI keeping the NSW and QLD contenders at home, it's a time when information on racing comes thick and fast.

Everyday there is news reports and updates on Spring's leading candidates. There's barrier draws, scratchings, betting plunges, trackwork, injuries - it's all hard to keep a finger on the pulse with all the going-ons.

So why not let AAP Racing give you a hand finding all the winners?

AAP's exclusive Fastform Five Ratings Each are based on a combination of factors including class, weight, race time and sectional time factors and awarded a FastForm Five Numerical Rating. Ratings are calculated as soon as acceptances are received and provision for your own adjustments are available.

Below are some of the value winners identified by Fastform Five Ratings in recent weeks.

17th October - Caulfield

20th October - Caulfield

27th October - Moonee Valley

The ratings are available approximately 48 hours before the meeting is held and easy to obtain. Just call AAP Racing, toll free on 1800 811 358 or visit http://www.aapracing.com.au/formanalyser

The perfect compliment to the FastForm Ratings is AAP's newest product to our stable of services is AAP's Speed Maps.

Did you know that around 50% of races are won by horses that are in the first three approaching the 400m mark of a race? This figure increases even more in sprint races. By using your speed maps you can take a lot of the guesswork out of form study and capitalise on these powerful statistics.

A speed map is a plan of how a race is likely to be run and predicts the likely position of a horse on settling. All horse's preferred racing positions are determined and presented to the client as a simple chart, thus saving hours of race study. Speed maps are used for race analysis by professional punters, bookmakers, jockeys, stewards and others who need to know the likely pattern of a race.

There are many factors that determine a horse's racing positions. Some of these include:

AAP's speed maps aren't computer generated and are only produced after careful individual assessment after race acceptances are taken. Because of the work required, speed maps are only available from noon on Fridays for the forthcoming Saturday meeting.

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Melbourne Cup Preview

by Peter Klein, AAP Racing

Most of the contenders have had their final lead up races, their connections content to let the clock tick over to that first Tuesday in November. A few horses will go around on Derby Day attempting to force their way into the field, or as a final top off for their preparation. The jockeys have been booked, the markets framed. All that needs to be done is go through the form and pick the winner. AAP Racing's Peter Klein and Scott Gooley preview the 2007 Melbourne Cup for Inform subscribers.

PK: David Hayes may have up to six runners - that's some record. What do you make of Miss Finland?

SG: She's a champ and you can't take that away from her, but she's racing very dourly. Maybe she's had enough this prep?

PK: He's got Blue Monday whose best Australian run was 4th in Caulfield Cup, but no two mile form. He's also got Tawqeet, a strong winner of the 2006 Caulfield Cup, before a hoof injury put paid to his chances in the Melbourne Cup of that year.

David Hayes - may have a record
6 runners in the Cup.
Image: AAP Image

SG: It's hard to see Blue Monday turn the tables on Master O'Reilly and Tawqeet's form is questionable going into the race, with only one fair run (5th in Caulfield Cup). It's not really the form you want going the cup is it?

PK: No, I agree. Another runner of his is Lazer Sharp - who had good 3yo form (winner Derby and St Leger in SA). He was 2nd in the MV Cup behind Gallic. He drops to 52k in the Cup. Is he a lightweight chance?

SG: He's out of a sprinting sire but should get the distance. But he needs to step up another class from what he's been racing against. Hayes has also got Black Tom, a 7yo stallion with no form. Couldn't see him do more than make up the numbers.

PK: That leaves his Geelong Cup winner The Fuzz. It was an impressive win wasn't it?

SG: Yes and Geelong Cup form has stacked up well over the years.

PK: Interestingly he's a former Kiwi and. If one of the owner names is anything to go by (First Tuesday Syndicate) it's an omen bet! He looks like he'll be strong at end of 3200m and definitely worth a ticket at $31.

PK: OK, what about the traditional guide, the Caulfield Cup - stablemates Master O'Reilly and Douro Valley?

SG: Master O'Reilly is the $4.70 favourite and whilst it's his first try at the 3200m, he's on the up and won the Caulfield Cup with authority. We all know what a good guide that's been over the years. He carries only 53k in the Cup and it's hard to see anything which raced in the Caulfield Cup turn the tables against him. He'll give it a real shake. His stablemate, Douro Valley ran a cracker in the Caulfield Cup, but for mine, I can't see him reverse the result in the Melbourne Cup.

Master O'Reilly - Authoritative Caulfield Cup
winner. Now for the big one?
Image: AAP Image

PK: Prominent owner Lloyd Williams has three runners this year in Gallic, Efficient and Zipping. I have to say that I've sacked Efficient after his Cox Plate failure. I think the wheels have fallen off.

SG: Yep, he appears to have lost all form. Zipping ran 4th last year and hit the line well in the Cox Plate off an extremely slow pace. He's also in well at weights with 53.5k. Gallic is shaping up as another Reckless (won Sydney, Adelaide Cups in same year) but don't know if he's quite good enough for a Melbourne Cup as an 8yo. Still… there's not many better two milers in the land than this fellow. It is a significant step up in class though for this 8yo compared to the Sydney and Adelaide Cup fields that he's met and defeated.

PK: How do you see the imported horses this year compared to last year?

SG: Well there's no Japanese horses and it's hard to get a line on the UK horses as most of them won't have raced here till the Cup.

PK: I don't know why they persist in doing that. There's only been one import win the Melbourne Cup that hasn't had at least one start in Australia. Vintage Crop won a Melbourne Cup 'Cold', but I haven't seen any others do it and I've seen plenty fail. The two other imports who won the Cup, Delta Blues and Media Puzzle, both had very good Australian form going into the Cup before winning it. So on those grounds alone I am prepared to risk any imported horse that hasn't started prior to the Melbourne Cup.

Gallic - already claimed an
Adelaide and Sydney Cup - Can
he add a Melbourne Cup to
his tally?
Image: AAP Image

SG: Fair point. That leaves Purple Moon with his fast closing 6th in the Caulfield Cup a good chance then. He's a winner up to 3200 m in the UK, although over the jumps. Interestingly, the trainer says he shouldn't have wasted a season over the sticks and always considered him a better flat galloper. Damien Oliver asked for the ride on him and he knows all about Melbourne Cups! I think he's clearly the best of the imported horses.

PK: Of the other imports, there's Bay Story a $301 chance and Tungsten Strike, who has picked up a couple of G2 and G3 races over 3200M in the UK.I can't see them winning.

SG: Aidan O'Brien's galloper, Mahler, has some claims. He's a GI Queens Vase winner over 3200m and 2nd in the St Leger. But as you say, it's very hard to win here without a run.

PK: What other roughies are there that might get up? Can you see Eskimo Queen winning?

SG: She gets too far back for mine. Hard to get a line on her form.

PK: What about On a Jeune? - I was thinking of his 2nd in the 2005 Cup, but he'd won the Geelong Cup then and hasn't had the same lead up form.

SG: Yep, think it's passed him by. I reckon there only two others who could cause an upset. Maybe Better and the Kiwi, Princess Coup.

PK: I thought with Maybe Better that 'maybe' this was his year. But he put in an indifferent run in the Caulfield Cup (jarred up?) and will have to race well on Saturday to redeem himself. Princess Coup's an interesting one. She's got class as her 3rd in the Caulfield Cup will attest. She's also a winner of the G1 Kelt in NZ. My doubt with Kiwi horses over the past few years is that their best haven't been quite good enough for our top races. I suspect the same for her.

Melbourne Cup Selections:

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October Book Review

Good luck and good punting! That's been the trade mark sign off from Ken Callander for nigh on forty five years that he's been involved in racing. That well know face and distinctive lisp of Kenny's are as well known to most Sydney racegoers as the finishing post at Randwick Racecourse. Most know Ken through his involvement in the media - newspaper, TV and until recently his live mounting yard comments done in partnership with son Richard. But there's more to Callander's lifetime involvement in racing than meets the eye.

More than anything, Ken's known for his love of the punt. But as well as putting his own on, he's been commissioned by some of Australia's biggest punters such as George Freeman, Kerry Packer, and Laurie Connell to name a few. One funny story Callander tells is of him doing a racing show from Rosehill telecast live through to Packer's Channel 9. Packer had asked Callander to put $40,000 on a horse for him, but Callander, realising he was required on air in about ninety seconds told Packer he wouldn't have time. 'Son, who do you think owns the #@@!&**^$* TV station?' was the response! Needless to say, Callander put the bet on and the camera crossed to an empty screen where Ken should have been hosting!

Not everyone would be aware that as well as punting, Callander was actually a bookmaker for a few years himself. And of course he's seen some classic cons worked over the years in this field. Like the time Victorian bookmaker Albert Smith used to field in Sydney during the carnivals. Smith and Bill Waterhouse were great mates and would always look after each other. Smith's staff were always impeccably dressed in white coats and even his bookmaking bags were a distinctive blue with 'ALBERT SMITH, VICTORIA CLUB' written on them. One year after the first two favourites had won, a man appeared in front of Waterhouse's stand with an Albert Smith bag and said, 'Bill, Albert has had a shocking run for cash in the first two races, can he get ten thousand off you?' The obliging Waterhouse handed over the money and the coat and the money were found in a nearby toilet and the clerk was never seen again.

One of Ken's mates was fight promoter Bill Mordey, a man who loved a bet as much as anybody. One day he called Ken and tells him he needs to get his hands on $5000 he's got stashed under his mattress at his mother's place. Poor Ken had to invite himself in for a cup of tea then slip into Mordey's bedroom and grab the money without his mother noticing. All's well that ends well though - Callander got the money and backed a horse called Best Card for Mordey at 2/1 which got up and won. Callander's always had his own strong opinions on racing. If you want to find more about how he thinks the great jockeys, trainers and horses compare over the years, I strongly suggest you buy this book - it's a great read.

AAP Inform readers have the chance to win a free copy of Callander's book. All you need to do, is tell us what Callander's well known sign off call is. The first three correct entries received win.
Email your answer to salesandadmin@aap.com.au and include your name, address and telephone number.

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Melbourne Cup Quiz

1. In what year was the first Melbourne Cup held?
2. What English visitor started favourite in the 1995 Cup?
3. How many Melbourne Cups did Phar Lap compete in?
4. Who holds the race record for the Cup?
5. How many Cup winners has Trainer, Lee Freedman won?
6. Name the first Japanese horse to compete in the Cup?
7. Name the trifecta in the 2000 Cup.
8. Who was the last Victorian Derby winner to compete in the Melbourne Cup the same year?
9. In what year was the prizemoney for the Melbourne Cup worth 1 million dollars and who was victorious?
10. What weight did the mighty Makybe Diva carry in her third Melbourne Cup victory?

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Quiz Answers

1. 1861
2. Double Trigger
3. Three. 1929, 1930 and 1931
4. Kingston Rule. 3:16:3
5. Five. Tawriffic (1989), Subzero (1992), Doriemus (1995) and Makybe Diva (2004 and 2005)
6. Eye Popper (2005)
7. Brew, Yippyio and Second Coming
8. Arena - 1998
9. 1985 - What a Nuisance
10. 58 kgs.

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