Inform Newsletter - May 2007

In This Months Edition

• Feature: Betting on the Freshman Sires
• Doomben 10,000 Preview
• Racing News
• May Book Review: A Year On The Punt
• Inform: Sports Quiz
• Crossword

FEATURE: Betting on the Freshman Sires

With only a couple of months of the season to go, it's time to assess the freshman sires and see how they are performing. At the start of the season, Sportingbet Australia supplied a market with their opening quotes of which first season sire they thought would provide the most individual winners in Australia. We've reproduced the early market (up to $51) and added another column showing the latest odds of the same horses.

Source: Sportingbet Australia market for
individual winners first season sire 2006-2007
season (Australia winners only)

It's interesting to see how some of those early prices quoted are shaping up now that the season is nearing completion. Early favourite Choisir has eased to $7 along with equal second favourites Hussonet and Bel Esprit who are both out to double figures. However the big market movers have been Johannesburg ($5.50 into $2.10), Rock of Gibraltar ($10 into $2.50) and Falvelon ($9 into $5.0).

One way to assess how these sires are going is to analyse the number of live foals they've had in their first crop versus the number of individual winners they have produced. The table below illustrates that it really boils down to a 'numbers' game.

The more foals a sire can get on the ground, the more likely they are to get more runners and winners. But bigger isn't necessarily better. In the case of Elusive Quality, he's got the highest strike rate of 8.8% (winners to live foals) and with only 68 foals, he's had 52 less foals than current leader Johannesburg. Falvelon too, has a high strike rate comparing his foal numbers (88) against the likes of Johannesburg, Rock of Gibraltar and Choisir.

Johannesburg has had 120 foals for 9 winners thus far. Second favourite Rock of Gibraltar has sired 107 foals with 6 winners to date. And Falvelon, with only 88 foals, has succeeded with 8 winners. Choisir rounds off the only other horse given a chance in the betting. He has had a large number of foals (115) for 6 individual winners. Choisir has had two stakes winners in Incumbent (1st Sires Produce, Caulfield) and Hurried Choice, both of whom have won two races each. Although running equal third for individual winners, Choisir leads narrowly in the total 2YO earnings; $881,680 from Rock of Gibraltar on $843,940.

Rock of Gibraltar has had 5 individual stakes winners in his first crop which has boosted his earnings. They include the highly promising Murtajill (4th Golden Slipper and Sires Produce), Superfly, Gibraltar and I Have No Fear. Rock of Gibraltar has also sired winners in France with Mount Nelson and in the UK with Eagle Mountain, but these aren't counted towards the Australian individual sires by winners title.

Choisir winning at Royal Ascot -his progeny
are following in his footsteps
Photo Credit: AAP Image

Camarilla winning the Sires Produce -
another Elusive Quality two year
old winner
Photo Credit: AAP Image

Johannesburg who has already created a big impression in the US, UK and Canada with 8 individual winners, has cruised to the lead in Australia with 9 winners. These include Springboks, Woody n' Buzz, Confidence Reef and African Gold. He certainly can get two year old winners. Falvelon has been a real 'find' this year. He's thrown 8 individual winners including stakes winner Keiki (Champagne Classic G2), Queen Falvelon, Falvelea and Mr Standfast. Elusive Quality, whilst given no chance of winning this contest, has nevertheless had a very good year with his progeny. He's long been a proven performer in the US and in Europe (Smarty Jones, Elusive Diva, etc) and when given his chance in Australia has certainly produced the goods. His best horse has been Camarilla who won this year's AJC Sires Produce Stakes G1.

What to look for in picking next year's winner?

• Foal numbers are critical. If the stallion hasn't got a large number of foals, preferably 100+, then the odds will be against you.
• If they are a shuttle stallion making their debut in Australia, look at their track record overseas.
• Service fees are not a particularly good guide. Just because a first season sire stands at a high service fee, doesn't mean he will throw early two year olds.
• Sales of yearlings to good judges; look for the top trainers or bloodstock agents making multiple purchases of the breed. It's a fair bet that if a trainer buys 3 or 4 of the same stallion's progeny, they must like the stallion.
• Back several horses to win the title and Dutch Book them. The early odds will allow you to back several horses and still make a profit no matter which one wins.
• Do your research. Inglis Pedigree Lines allows comprehensive searches on sire statistics and leading sires reports.

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Doomben 10,000 Preview

AAP's Scott Gooley and Peter Klein give their preview of the 2007 Doomben 10,000.

PK: What do we make of Takeover Target?

SG: I reckon with 2 runs back from a spell he should be cherry ripe. His run behind Bentley Biscuit was very good and the WFA scale plays right into his hand.

PK: I agree. I think the horse had an interrupted prep in the autumn and is only now starting to hit his straps. He looked big and burly to me in the All Aged Stakes, so he's got some upside to him yet whereas some of these horses don't look to have a lot of improvement in them. Can Mintanni turn the tables on him?

SG: His form is exceptional. He's got a new trainer in Guy Walter and he should be running on. But there's no weight turn around and you wonder if he can turn the tables. But his win in the Sir Byrne Hart was something else. He'll be thereabouts.

PK: A horse I had a bit of time for in the autumn was Malcolm. Ran some bold races in group races like the Doncaster and Epsom without winning. But he did carrying relatively light weights. Now he's got to carry 59 kg at WFA and I don't know that he's quite up to that.

SG: Think you hit the nail on the head. He's smart, but you wouldn't rate him in the Takeover Target or Gold Edition class. Maybe to finish in the first four or five.

PK: Hard to Catch?

SG: His last couple of starts have been fair, but can't see him winning here.

PK: Black Ink, Royal Ida or Any Suggestion got any show?

SG: If there was rain about, Black Ink can grow a leg in the wet. But the forecast looks to be a good track at this stage, so that rules him out. Royal Ida has handy Adelaide form (3rd in the Goodwood), but steps up in class here and has yet to prove himself at G1 level. I'd suggest Any Suggestion will be any old price on his form…

PK: What about Media and Gee I Jane? I've never been a big fan of Media. Even when Bobby Thompson was training her as a two year old I thought she was over rated. Her record of 3 wins in 24 starts does nothing to change my mind.

SG: Yep, I don't think she's top class. But I rate Gee I Jane. You might remember last winter carnival she ran a corker to finish 2nd in the Stradbroke and won the BTC Cup. She didn't get any luck at her last start and loves coming to Brisbane for the winter. I reckon she's a good roughie for the trifectas.

PK: So we're down to Gold Edition. You know she's a favourite of mine. Has been since I saw her win two races in four days down the Flemington straight last spring. I just love the way she puts herself in a winning position and explodes away. At Doomben on Saturday, I see her control the tempo and go whoosh with her 54.5 kg. It will be up to the others to try and run her down, but she'll take some catching.

PK's selections 1.) Gold Edition 2.) Takeover Target 3.) Malcolm

SG's selections 1.) Takeover Target 2.) Gold Edition 3.) Gee I Jane

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Racing News

AAP Racing: One source - plenty of winners!

Regular visitor to the AAP Racing site and its services, certainly have had a good 'leg up' over the past several weeks in finding a winner or two. AAP's renowned Fastform Five Ratings, Runner's to Watch and latest interviews from top Jockeys and Trainers, have all located plenty of horses that have recently gone on to salute the judge.

Fastform Five Ratings

Fastform Five predictive ratings are designed for upcoming meetings. They provide a quick, yet accurate evaluation which can be used by itself, adjusted or to compare to your own assessments. You can subscribe to FF5 through AAP's Form Analyser service. They're available for every TAB meeting conducted in Australia and New Zealand approximately 48 hours before the meeting. FF5 ratings give the punter a distinct advantage in finding the winners, as the results below show!

*TR = Top Rated Runner in race.

To find out more about Form Analyser and the Fastform Five ratings, click here or call AAP staff toll free on, 1800 811 358.

Latest News and Interviews

As Australia's premier source for free horse racing and sports news, AAP has all the latest news and interviews with Jockey, Trainers and Owners that an informed punter needs. Followers of AAP's Russell Jackson would have celebrated after his interview with trainer Gary White on 10th May;

'Trainer Garry White has declared talented mare November Flight a certainty to win at Randwick on Saturday. White said that despite being allotted 58kg, he was supremely confident that November Flight would get the job done at Randwick. "She'll win," White said. Result - November flight saluted on the 12th May returning $4.10!

AAP's Runner's to Watch

Located on AAP Racing's homepage, Runner's to Watch is a list of carefully selected horses by AAP Racing staff that are ready to win! Below are just some of the winners located by our team over the past few weeks!

Keep a regular check on the Runner's to Watch section of the site, as runners are added as they're spotted during the week. And to make sure you never miss when a Runner to Watch is due to contest an event, join AAP's free Blackbook service.

List as many horses as you wish and you'll be notified via email with details of when they are entered to race next, as well as your own comments which are recorded when you enter a horse into your own Blackbook service! To join AAP Blackbook, simply click on the following link. You'll be set to go within minutes and never miss backing a winner again.

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May Book Review: A Year On The Punt

Author: John Ellicott

Publisher: ABC Books

John Ellicott has a passion for country racing which would challenge the most ardent punter. Few racegoers would use their long service leave to attend twenty bush race meetings scattered around Australia. But that's what Ellicott did and the result is this little gem 'A Year On The Punt.'

Ever been to Come-By-Chance? What about the 'Bool? Ellicott visits a host of bush tracks in far flung places from Mareeba to Mudgee and Warnambool to Kalgoorlie - there's a chapter on each track. You'll hear all the local yarns (both tall and true) and be inspired by the characters he meets on his journey.

Ellicott's got an easy going writing style which seems to take you right amongst the battlers, bushies and punting die hards that are the heart of country racing in Australia. If you're looking for a slice of authentic Australian country, you'll find it here in A Year On The Punt'

What I liked: Judges verdict on each track. Great photos too.

Rating: 3/5

Available: ABC Bookshops

Price: $29.95

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Inform - Sports Quiz

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Crossword

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Quiz & Crossword Answers

Quiz Answers

Crossword Answers

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